The Problem With Predicting The End Of Facebook

Posted on May 9, 2012



I read a very smart piece today about the potential for Facebook to end up like a MySpace or other social media efforts that powered up only to find itself crippled by the very success that brought them to the front of the pack in a very fast moving social media era that still appears to be in early development.  The thing that I find most interesting about this talk is how much people seem to miss how Mark Zuckerberg and team play strong defense against all players in the social media space.  They have the “ball” and they are watchful of others who have any idea that could become trouble for them in the short or long term.  If you’ve watched carefully, you’ve noticed they move over a “space” or product with something of their own that makes the competitor seem more pointless until the threat is considered “over” by their team.  That makes them totally different than a MySpace or anything else we’ve seen in the 15 or so years of real internet efforts.

And that’s nothing.

Perhaps those who are predicting the doom of Facebook in the “face” of their IPO are focused on the wrong activities from the Facebook team right now.   Perhaps the future of Facebook is actually starting to look much more like a company the critics already love.

Facebook could become a very serious and extremely troubling new competitor for Apple.  That’s right.  I said it.  What if Facebook is actually trouble for the stock and company everyone points to as the most innovative, highly profitable and future-leaning company in the stock market today.  Think about it.  Oh, Facebook could never challenge Apple?  I beg to differ.  Apple could have their hands full very soon with the blue and white Facebook logo coming right after their core businesses.

Try this.  What if Facebook (which now sports approximately one billion people using its free services regularly) dropped into the App store business and developed an Android phone?  Wha-a-a-t?  Have you been paying attention to what they are really working on at Facebook?  While a lot of people are saying Facebook can’t possibly make enough money to make their IPO worth “the price” because they can’t get enough revenue from mobile, what if those critics were missing the entire point?

What if Zuckerberg and crew were rowing their way up over to the space occupied nicely by Apple, and what if Facebook was to basically exploit their relationship with a billion people to make insane profit?

If that happens, what does Facebook’s stock look like then?  Well, it will look like APPLE.

I’ve been watching and noticing how much Zuckerburg looks, acts and talks like a very young Steve Jobs – but friendly.  What is it they used to say in the “good ole days” before your friends posted cute phrases on Facebook?  You catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

You just watch and see.

Beep!  Beep!  Here comes Facebook and they are not messing around over there.  Can you see this story might turn out differently than many expect?

Loyd Ford

Facebook The world’s biggest social network is expected to go public on May 18. And like all companies facing an initial public offering, Facebook is staying quiet about its financials and stock potential. AP

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